Security of India in these trying times - a short analysis.


Plot :-
Considering the decadence of our times it deems imperative to look into a new paradigm of security for our nation (here we must understand that we are no more a nation state and hence the irks of regionalism needs to be pervaded with Nationalism).
Since 1947 India has been engulfed in war (not to mention here the drain out of  Indian GDP from 24% to mere 2.5% post the British colonial era), which have had led to major leakage of state exchequer. Just to provide a snapshot of the losses in order to set Tempo right.

Cost Reflection :-
The India-Pakistan conflict already squeezes out 3% of India’s economic potential, according to an analysis done by the Mumbai-based think-tank Strategic Foresight Group in 2004.
Though reliable data on disappearances and civilian casualties is not available, it would be safe to assume that at least 100,000 families suffered direct human costs on account of the four wars between India and Pakistan.
the two countries ended up spending more than $3 billion in the short period of time due to confrontation and the overarching possibility of a nuclear war.
Timelines of
conflict
India
Pakistan
1948
1104
1500
1965
3264
3800
1971
3843
7900
1999
522
696
Pakistan spent Rs 424 billion in visible and invisible payments to terror outfits and its own military in the year 2004, which was about 10.6% of its GDP then, according to estimates by the think-tank.

Effect on current Economy :-

·         Compared to the Kargil war in 1999 that cost an estimated Rs 5,000 crore a week then, a war with Pakistan now will cost Rs 5,000 crore per day.
·         Even if the war lasts for a fortnight, it would cost India at least Rs 2,50,000 crore.
·         An Indo-Pak war will raise India’s fiscal deficit by 50 percent to about Rs 8 lakh crore.
The war will give a severe blow to the FDI/FII investment and can bring down the value of rupee to Rs 100 to a US dollar.

The main set back would be the loss of Market and  would also ruin the upward trend in FDI/ FII investment, take a 50 percent hit on the bourses, put paid to our high tech manufacturing ambitions and render bleak the chances of a revival in the near term.
The above said in terms of the growth and prosperity of the nation, there are intrinsic issues which looms large such as :-
(a)    Loss of face in case of blowing up of war (considering china may get dragged into). Costs will rake up manifolds.
(b)   How the nation would take the war as? Considering we have a majority of population still under BPL (not to mention the un-equitable wealth distribution even in the middle class population).
(c)    Strategy to handle pakistan’s Nuclear ploy . Currently major offensives are at bay due to this abstract rhetoric.
 However the above should not deter a nation from facing the most serious issue of our time head-on. Few of the options on the table would be :
(a)    Ramp up India’s defense – much has not been executed in terms of Infrastructure (roads/rail networks) other than the set of Arms/ ammunitions & spy cameras etc.. irrespective of change in our national leadership the basic requirements still remains unfulfilled.
The above would require humongous amount of money.
(b)    Review allocation of funds for defence armament needs – pegged at 3% the allocation was at 1.45% of GDP (2017-18 budget) which is a mockery on the way the country looks at it’s defence.
Arguments for a better allocation & Budget structuring
We may contest the requirements as shopping spree for our defence sectors, however the concerns such as Chinese interventions in various sectors including our land & seas , the drop in majority of the make in India campaigns & lackluster form of planning a well educated defence budget.
In addition to the voids of NSS(national security strategy) and CDR(comprehensive defence review), our pre-budgeting process also needs an overhaul. In the present context, the three Services project their demands to the HQ Integrated Staff (IDS), which forwards the compiled demand to MoD. After some minor tinkering, MoD sends it to the Ministry of Finance. The Finance Minister puts arbitrary cap on defence allocations, without considering operational necessities.
China supports Pakistani radicals at the UN, continues aggressive moves even after the Doklam standoff, and its state media threatens. China can destabilize our northeast if India pressurizes Pakistan in Kashmir. We need to address cumulative critical deficiencies of the military, need for modernisation and adverse strategic fallout of a 'hollowed' defence. In addition, operational requirements indicate why India needs annual defence allocation of 3 percent of GDP.
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence has pointed out that meagre funds for the armed forces as a whole, cannot be justified through standard answers like, 'The allocations made to the Services are based upon the ceilings conveyed by the Ministry of Finance'. 
Hopefully, the government will keep this in mind.
(c)    Ramp up its own ‘defensive offence’ programme -  India can and must create mayhem in India’s legally owned PoK / Gilgit-Baltistan.
We can also fan the revolt in independence-seeking Balochistan till success is theirs. With these regions breaking away as the ultimate objective, other regions, like NWFP, and Sindh, are likely to join the revolt.
We can provide men, materials, training, diplomatic and economic support in the long-term. We can use proxies, ‘non-state actors’, specialized operatives, soldiers, commandos – all being mufti and with ‘plausible deniability’.
(d)   Army must be given a free hand – proper retaliation to cross border firing & infiltration to be handled by army as per their plan of action and severity determined by the war commanders. This must also include use of heavy artillery whenever required (considering frontiers of war).
This slow burn would also prevent China from wading in, and blaming us for the privilege!
(e)   Stick to Diplomatic Route - Besides, our diplomatic effort to isolate Pakistan as a terrorist state is working. Not only is it under censure from America, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, but also from Afghanistan and Bangladesh, in the SAARC.
More condemnation, perhaps even economic sanctions, may well be on its way.
This diabolical joint plan is meant to be decisive, but how can it be, when it is essentially a ‘war of a thousand cuts’, in operation since the 1980s?

Conclusion :-
Arguing that a war is the last thing the sub-continent needs. “It is to be pointed out that Pakistan and India are the only two nuclear-armed states who still have unresolved disputes.”
If India changes course, to stick, no matter how insolent the provocation, to responding likewise, we can give tit-for-tat indefinitely and even make some pre-emptive thrusts and parries.

Honour and blood will be served, while our economy keeps chugging forward.

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